![]() While I believe that BMBL’s ARPPU will likely diminish over time, I think that BMBL will continue to steal share and wallet from Tinder over time and in more geographies as it catches up to MTCH’s scale. Not only that, but I also found that the difference in ARPPU of 76% between MTCH and BMBL suggests that BMBL is more effective in converting users to paid and delivering more value per user than its larger peer. I then applied the 50% international payer estimate, the 9% international APRU discount, and an additional 25% discount to the difference between MTCH and BMBL’s LTM payers of 28,730, to arrive at $570 billion of upside. I was able to estimate that 50% of BMBL’s payers are international and calculated a 9% discount between MTCH’s North American and international ARPPU metrics. In the analysis above, I estimated BMBL’s current LTM Payer base in North America and internationally using MTCH’s existing payer and revenue metrics. I put together an illustrative example of how BMBL has potential to grow and scale their international presence over the course of the next 12 to 24 months. While the bulk of the remaining 60% of revenue comes from North America (primarily US and Canada), the company has plenty of open space ahead. Additionally, the company launched in Spain at the end of 2022, meaning that the impacts of these regional expansions should show up in the financials in the coming quarters.īumble’s international growth has been growing at 11% or more on an LTM basis over the last six consecutive quarter, and represents 40% of sales. However, the team highlighted that there is a prioritization occurring in Western Europe, Italy, the Nordics, and some parts of Central Europe because they have seen rapid growth in their data analytics. To start, in the most recent two earnings calls, both Whitney and Tariq Shaukat, President, have acknowledged the company’s focus on expanding into Western Europe, Latin America, India, and Southeast Asia. International Growth Prospectsīumble has built a sizable and growing international portion of its business over the last several years, and I believe we are in the early innings of how much further the company can expand into other regions. My analysis will cover various catalysts that I believe will be accretive to the current share price, including BMBL’s international growth prospects, paying user growth, ARPPU strength, and business model expansion initiatives. My weighted average NTM price target for the stock is ~$29, implying a 36% premium to the current share price at the time this analysis was written. Despite the competitiveness of the industry, I believe BMBL has entrenched itself as the number two in the space as measured by revenue, only behind MTCH (BMBL LTM revenue $936 million versus MTCH’s $3,177 million), with stronger growth revenue, user, and international growth prospects ahead. ( GRND), and many privately held competitors who operate in the same space and have similar business models. The company is well-known for its core ethos, brand, and culture of ‘women-first’ and its popular Founder and CEO, Whitney Wolfe Herd.īMBL operates in a highly competitive, low-barrier to entry market that has two public company competitors, Match Group, Inc. In 2022, BMBL served an average of 40 million users on a monthly basis, was ranked top five grossing iOS lifestyle apps in 109 countries, and has 950 employees. Fruitz was acquired in January 2022 and has a Gen Z focus. Within that, Morgan Stanley estimates that industry revenue in United States was approximately $2.6 billion in 2022.īMBL operates three apps, Bumble, Badoo, and Fruitz and employs a freemium business model, where basic services are free and a smaller subset of users pay for subscriptions or in-app purchases to access premium features. According to Grand View Research, the global online dating industry is a nearly $10 billion industry and is projected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2023 to 2030. ( NASDAQ: BMBL) represents a leading online dating and social networking platform that has experienced strong user, revenue, and organic growth since it IPOed in in 2021.
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